Risk Appetite Increasing?

The speculation over the ADP employer report saw the JPY continue its decline against the major pairs but in particular focus was the large gains achieved by the USDJPY which broke above the resistance line of 93.30 and is moving steadily towards a nearly three month high of 93.85. The ADP report is expected to show that the US achieved a 40,000 job increase over the previous period, which would be the highest since December 2007 helping to boost investor confidence in the pair further. In Japanese market news, the wage report showed that wages slipped 0.6% a huge increase on the 0.1% that was expected, which only helped to increase the USD gain over the Yen.
The AUDUSD fell 0.4% to 0.9159 on account of a huge loss in February retail sales which came in at 1.4% while the country expected 0.3%, in conjunction with this home building approvals also fell declining 3.3% far above the 2.1% expected.
Attention will be focused on the EUR today after the major fall out of the Greek 12 year bond sale. The country received bids for only 390 million on a cap of 1 billion. This has rewoken concern that Greece is unable to cover its debts and traders will also look to the German employment data (which is expected to be unchanged at 8.2%) for an indication of which way the currency will react.

EURGBP – Moving in the middle…

The continuing downward trend of the EURGBP seems set to continue in the long term as the pair broke a support of 0.8887, with intraday trading mainly on the downside. If the pair continues to trade below this broke support a new support of 0.8601 is likely. With relation to the upside a break of the resistance of 0.9024 may indicate short term rises to 0.9137 and above.
The long term medium range within 0.8399 and 0.9799 is still in place with the pair trading solidly within this frame. There is support at 0.8601 which may bring about a long term uptrend. On the upside a move above 0.9410 will help to prove that the pair has consolidated from 0.9799 and is heading for another high above this mark.

GBPJPY continues the bearish trend…

The rise of the GBPJPY pair is still very much in progress, however a resistance of 143.59 is on the table. There is a minor support of 137.98, which is likely to turn all things neutral however a further break of 134.53 will support an argument for the bears as the pair falls from 1.63.05 and continues towards a mark of 132.13, with many speculating that it will go beyond this point.
The bigger picture points towards a bearish view as the pair falls from a 2007 high of 251.90 with all indications pointing towards a low of 118.81, which does not seem so fantastical now the pair has hit 163.05. The outlook for the bear remains decidedly bearish.

GBPUSD – Bulls or bears?

The GBP continued its rise against the dollar on Tuesday held up by good GDP data. The Cable moved to a high of 1.5117 from 1.4974 and finally settled on 1.5066 by the close of the day. We expect to see the bullish trend continuing for Wednesday with a first resistance at 1.5117. If the pair break above this line the bullish movement should continue towards a mark of 1.5209 with the closest support being Tuesdays low of 1.4974. If GBP makes this support level the bears may come into play and could weaken the currency to 1.4894. There is no economic news to be relied upon on Wednesday and the EMA’s are showing slightly bullish signals supported by positive MACD and RSI indications.